Messi or Yamal? Mendieta Predicts Ballon d'Or Race Will Be Decided by World Cup Final

Former Spain midfielder Gaizka Mendieta believes the race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or will come down to Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal, with Sunday's FIFA World Cup final set to determine who takes home football's biggest individual prize.

Speaking ahead of the showdown between Argentina and Spain, Mendieta said the outcome of the final could have a decisive influence on the voting.

According to the former Spain international, an Argentina victory would almost certainly see Messi claim a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or, while a Spain triumph would significantly strengthen Yamal's credentials.

"The World Cup serves as the pivotal factor for the Ballon d'Or," Mendieta told Goal.

"Lamine Yamal could also achieve this. He has had an outstanding season despite facing injuries and has been crucial for Barcelona. He continues to be essential for Spain."

Mendieta also pointed to Spain forward Mikel Oyarzabal as another player who deserves recognition following his impressive performances throughout the tournament.

"If Spain triumphs, we should consider their roster for potential candidates. Mikel Oyarzabal is another exceptional player that has gained recognition."

However, the former midfielder was unequivocal about Messi's chances should Argentina retain their world title.

"If Argentina prevails, Messi will undoubtedly win it."

The Inter Miami captain has enjoyed another outstanding World Cup campaign, registering eight goals and four assists to guide Argentina into a second consecutive final.

Yamal, despite scoring only once in seven appearances, has impressed with his creativity, dribbling ability and overall influence in Spain's march to the final, cementing his status as one of the tournament's standout young stars.

Opinion

Mendieta's assessment reflects how heavily major international tournaments often influence Ballon d'Or voting. While club performances across an entire season remain important, a decisive display in a World Cup final can elevate a player's candidacy above the rest.

Messi's numbers and leadership make him a natural favourite if Argentina lift the trophy, while Yamal's impact extends beyond goals, showcasing maturity and creativity well beyond his years. Regardless of Sunday's outcome, both players have produced campaigns worthy of recognition, but history suggests the World Cup winner could gain the decisive edge in the race for football's highest individual honour.