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No, Adeleke Is Not Joining The APC

No, Adeleke Is Not Joining The APC

Geo-Political News

A claim that Osun governor Ademola Adeleke is set to join the APC after winning re-election has been circulating since he received his certificate of return. It does not hold up.

election certificate ceremony podium
election certificate ceremony podium Photograph by Dmitrii Vaccinium via Unsplash.

What actually happened

Adeleke won the 15 August governorship election and received his certificate of return from INEC in Osogbo, presented by National Commissioner Professor Kunle Ajayi. He signed it, danced, said the victory was God's doing, and said he had forgiven those who worked against him.

That last line is the seed. A gracious sentence about forgiveness, delivered by a politician, is enough raw material for a defection rumour in Nigeria. It was amplified from there, and by the weekend it had acquired the confidence of a fact.

How to check one of these in thirty seconds. A Nigerian defection at governor level is never quiet. It involves a formal announcement, a receiving-party ceremony, and usually a rally. If none of those exists, and the only evidence is a paraphrase of something conciliatory, it has not happened.

Why the rumour was attractive

Because it would matter enormously if it were true. Osun is a South West state in a cycle where the South West is central to the President's arithmetic. A PDP governor crossing to the APC weeks into a campaign period would be one of the largest political events of the year.

Rumours travel in proportion to how much they would matter, not in proportion to how likely they are. That is why the ones about consequential people move fastest.

The part that is real

There is a genuine story near this one, and it is about the election rather than the governor. Observers were able to test the announced Osun result against their own parallel count and it held, which is the specific thing Nigerian elections have most often failed to demonstrate. Civil society groups have since pressed INEC to treat that as the floor for 2027 rather than a good day that happened once.

Adeleke's party membership is not the Osun story. What INEC did on 15 August is.

Reporting: Legit.ng, TG News, Upshot Reports and Kanyi Daily.

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