Arsenal remain the overwhelming favourites to lift the 2025/2026 Premier League title, according to the Opta SuperComputer, despite their dramatic 3-2 defeat to Manchester United on Sunday.

The Gunners saw their impressive unbeaten home record come to an end after Matheus Cunha fired in a sensational long-range winner at the Emirates Stadium. The loss also trimmed Arsenal’s lead at the top of the table to four points, with both Manchester City and Aston Villa taking full advantage by securing victories over the weekend.

Still, the data remains firmly on Arsenal’s side.

Opta’s latest projections give Mikel Arteta’s men an 84.44% chance of finishing the season as champions — a staggering figure that underlines how strong their overall campaign has been. Defending champions Manchester City are given an 8.38% chance, while Aston Villa sit at 7.09%. Liverpool, meanwhile, have been handed less than a 1% probability of mounting a title charge.

With 15 matches still left to play, the title race is far from mathematically decided, but the numbers suggest Arsenal remain well in control.

Opinion: Numbers Don’t Lie, But Football Still Has a Pulse

Opta’s confidence in Arsenal says a lot about how dominant and consistent the Gunners have been this season. Even with a rare slip at home, their performances across the campaign — both statistically and tactically — still put them miles ahead of the chasing pack.

However, football history teaches us that title races are not won on percentages alone. Momentum, injuries, pressure, and big-match nerves often rewrite predictions in the final stretch. Arsenal’s challenge now is mental: responding to setbacks without panic and proving they can handle the weight of expectation that has haunted them in past seasons.

That said, an 84% probability is not luck — it’s evidence. If Arteta’s side can stay focused and treat this defeat as a warning rather than a collapse, this could finally be the year Arsenal end their long wait for Premier League glory.

For now, the supercomputer believes. The question is: can Arsenal match the math on the pitch?