Opta SuperComputer Gives Arsenal Strong Edge in Premier League Title Race

Arsenal’s long wait for a Premier League title could finally be nearing its end, with the Opta SuperComputer handing Mikel Arteta’s side a massive 79% chance of lifting the trophy this season.

The Gunners head into 2026 sitting four points clear at the top of the table, following a ruthless 4–1 demolition of Aston Villa on New Year’s Day. Their advantage was further strengthened after Manchester City were held to a goalless draw by Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.

According to Opta’s projections, Arsenal are now overwhelming favourites to be crowned champions for the first time in 22 years, a drought that has tested the patience of their supporters for over two decades.

Manchester City’s title hopes have taken a significant hit, with their chances dropping to just 16.7% after yet another costly slip-up. Aston Villa remain distant outsiders, given a 4.1% probability, as they sit six points behind the league leaders.

Opinion: While football is never played on spreadsheets, the numbers reflect what has been evident on the pitch: Arsenal look more complete, confident and ruthless than at any point in the Arteta era. Unlike previous seasons, they are not just winning games, but doing so with authority and consistency.

City, on the other hand, appear vulnerable in moments where they once thrived, and in a title race this tight, dropped points can prove fatal. If Arsenal maintain their focus and avoid late-season nerves, this could finally be the year they turn promise into history.

For now, the statistics and momentum are firmly on the Gunners’ side—but the real test lies in how they handle the pressure of being favourites.