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Shehu Sani Says An Atiku Win Would End Rotation

Shehu Sani Says An Atiku Win Would End Rotation

Geo-Political News

Shehu Sani, the former senator from Kaduna, has said that an Atiku Abubakar victory in 2027 would end Nigeria's informal rotation of the presidency between North and South. He said Atiku has a constitutional right to contest, but that political considerations should also shape the direction of the election.

nigeria map north south
nigeria map north south Photograph by Joshua Oluwagbemiga via Unsplash.

The unwritten rule

Nothing in the constitution requires the presidency to alternate between the regions. The convention grew up after 1999 as a way to hold a divided federation together, and every major party has at some point bent it or broken it when it suited them.

PeriodPresidentRegion
1999 to 2007Olusegun ObasanjoSouth
2007 to 2010Umaru Musa Yar'AduaNorth
2010 to 2015Goodluck JonathanSouth
2015 to 2023Muhammadu BuhariNorth
2023 to nowBola TinubuSouth

Sani's argument is that the South is owed a second term on this pattern.

Where the argument gets complicated. The strongest opposition candidates in 2027 are Atiku, a northerner, and Peter Obi, a southerner. The rotation argument, used consistently, favours Tinubu and Obi over Atiku. That makes it a genuinely awkward principle for an opposition that needs northern votes and a southern candidate at the same time.
Rotation keeps the peace between regions. It also tells voters that where a candidate was born matters more than what he would do.

What voters actually weigh

Past results suggest regional loyalty remains powerful but not decisive when the economy is bad enough. The 2027 contest will test whether rotation is still a rule Nigerian voters enforce or a rule politicians invoke when it helps them, and Sani, who has changed parties more than once, knows both uses of it well.

Reporting: Vanguard, Punch Newspapers and Tribune Online.

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